Rising Powers, Rising Populations: The Geopolitical Implications of India and China’s Population Growth
India is projected to become the most populous nation in the world, surpassing China in mid-2023. According to the UNFPA’s State of the World Population Report (SWOP) 2023, India’s population is projected to reach 142.86 cr. against China’s 142.57 cr. This shows India will have 29 lakhs more people than its Asian neighbour.
UNFPA’s State of the World Population Report, 2023
The report shows that the United States is a distant third, with an estimated population of 34 crores. The report added that contrary to the alarm bells about exploding numbers. The population trends everywhere point to slower growth and aging societies.
Only the eight countries will account for half the projected growth in the global population by 2050. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania, while two-thirds of people now live in a country where lifetime fertility corresponds with zero growth.
Changing Demographics – China
These changing demographics also meant that China had controlled its population growth and now India has failed to do so. China managed to do so with the one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015, which limits couples to have only one child.
According to China, the policy has helped prevent nearly 400 million births, but as the proportion of the working-age population began reducing, the policy became a matter of concern. The country’s statistics bureau said the working-age population between 16 and 59 years old totaled 875.56 million, accounting for 62.0% of the national population, while those aged 65 and older totaled 209.78 million, accounting for 14.9% of the total.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
According to China’s TFR census, 2020- China’s TFR was 1.3 births per woman – marginally up from 1.2 in the 2010 and 2000 censuses, but way below the replacement rate of 2.1. In 2016, China allowed married couples to have a second child and in 2021, China allowed couples to have three children. But it is unlikely to stem the decline in the country’s population. However, the real crisis is China’s decline in the prime working-age population. The share of China’s working-age population is projected to fall below 50% by 2045.
If we compare the demographics, India has more population than China with the TFR being 2 in 2019-2021, and the number of people percentage of Indians above the age of 65, which means the population which would be generally dependent on others, India has 7% of such population whereas China already has 14%.
India’s population
The question arises why the Indian population has gone higher than China although India’s population growth rate has also declined heavily. The data from the National Family Health Survey, 2019-2021 shows the national average Total Fertility Rate is 2.0, which means that the number of babies reproduced by a woman in her reproductive age of 16-50 years is 10 women producing 20 babies.
The total fertility rate (TFR) has declined in most of the states, and the national TFR has decreased from 2.2 to 2.0. But many cities in India are still way above the National average. For instance, TFR observed in Bihar (3.0) is the highest, which means 10 women reproduced 31 babies in their reproductive age.
Uttar Pradesh is also quite high with 10 women producing between 21- 30 babies. But the southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu saw a decline in population with the lowest TRF in Andhra Pradesh (1.5).
The National Family Health Survey also shows that between 2011-2021, the population of Kerala grew only 2.5% whereas Bihar’s population in the same decade grew by almost 28%.
Reasons behind Population change
- The total fertility rate (TFR) has declined in most of the states, and the national TFR has decreased from 2.2 to 2.0.
- The percentage of women using modern contraception has increased from 53% to 56%.
- The percentage of children who received all basic vaccinations has increased from 62% to 73%.
- The percentage of women who received antenatal care from a skilled provider has increased from 79% to 84%.
- The percentage of children under 5 years who are stunted has decreased from 38% to 34%.
Population Disparity
National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data shows that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) varies widely between states, with the highest TFR observed in Bihar (3.0) and the lowest in Andhra Pradesh (1.5). Similarly, the percentage of women using modern contraception varies from 31% in Uttar Pradesh to 81% in Kerala.
Several other factors can contribute to the varying Total Fertility Rate (TFR) between states as observed in the NFHS data. Some of these factors include:
- Socio-economic factors: There is a strong correlation between TFR and socio-economic factors such as education, income, and occupation. States with lower levels of education and income tend to have higher TFRs.
- Cultural and religious beliefs: Cultural and religious beliefs can also influence fertility behavior. For example, some communities may prefer larger families or may have traditional gender roles that encourage childbearing.
- Access to family planning services: Access to family planning services, including modern contraceptives, can have a significant impact on fertility rates. States with better access to family planning services tend to have lower TFRs.
- Infant and child mortality rates: High infant and child mortality rates can also contribute to higher TFRs, as parents may choose to have more children to ensure that at least some survive.
- Age at marriage and first birth: Early marriage and early childbearing are more common in some states, which can lead to higher TFRs.
- Urbanization: The level of urbanization in a state can also influence TFR. Urban areas generally have lower TFRs than rural areas due to factors such as higher levels of education and greater access to family planning services.
Population Decline in the near Future
The Lancet Report analysed that the population decline globally will be much faster than what UNFPA’s SWP report suggests. According to the Lancet Report, by 2100, India’s TFR will come down to 1.24 (the same as what China has Right now).
India’s population would go down to 109 crore which is 27-28% less than its present population. and with 109 crores India will be the most populated country in the world. On the other side, China will be number three with 72.3 core which is almost half of its present population.
The number two will be Nigeria with its present TFR of 6.0, which is three times of India. Nigeria’s population will be four times from now to the year 2100. Similarly, many countries in South Africa will grow in the same way.
The population will begin to decline and to cope with such a situation many countries are taking steps to manage their aging population. Countries are increasing the working age to 65 years. For instance, Emmanuel Macron, President of France, tried to raise the working age which came out as an unpleasant plan.
India’s Opportunity
The population distribution of India is uneven with North India having a higher population density, also because it is considered the ‘Great Indian Plains’, historically suitable for agriculture. To manage the population strain India has to manage-
- the strain on resources
- Pressure on infrastructure
- Environmental impact
- Unemployment
- Social tensions
- Quality Education
We have to keep in mind that India has an uneven population between the states which meant migration because of a lack of job opportunities. India needs to maintain 18% GDP growth to keep up with India’s job market. India is currently maintaining 6% GDP and to create employment soon, India should have 18% GDP which is a challenge.
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) has revealed that India’s unemployment rate reached a 45-year high in 2017-18, the first year in which the survey was conducted. According to the survey, the unemployment rate in India rose to 6.1% in 2017-18, the highest level since 1972-73.
The PLFS data also showed that the unemployment rate was higher among urban youth (aged 15-29 years) and women. In addition, the survey revealed that employment growth in India had been slowing down in recent years, particularly in the formal sector.
The high unemployment rate in India is a major concern for policymakers, as it reflects the challenges faced by the labor market in generating sufficient employment opportunities for the growing workforce. The PLFS data provides important insights for designing policies and programs to address the issues of unemployment and underemployment in India.
India has begun seeing fertility rates fall to replacement levels, including in rural areas. But even with the fertility rate declining, India’s population is projected to expand and de-grow only after touching 1.7 billion about 40 years from now. The working population and its share in the overall population crossed 50% only in 2007 and will peak at 57% towards the mid-2030s. India has to seriously create job opportunities, along with taking care of the spread of education, farm mechanism, and fragmentation of land holdings.
Official UNFPA’S Report-https://www.unfpa.org/swp2023/8-billion-strong
